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Brusque vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 19:00

Brusque

PPG 2.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Floresta

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-110.2%0-24.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-112.9%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.4%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 54.6% 1.83 -16.6%

Draw 30.4% 33.3% 3.00 -8.8%

Away win 24.0% 21.7% 4.60 +6.2%

Over 2.5 43.6% 37.0% 2.70 +17.7%

Over 3.5 22.9% 18.2% 5.50 +15.6%

BTTS 48.5% 44.4% 2.25 +9.1%

Home O1.5 43.0% 43.5% 2.30 -1.1%

Away O1.5 23.2% 21.1% 4.75 +6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.5%

H 46% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 15.9%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brusque1.3

Floresta0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUSQUE · PPG 2.40

FLORESTA · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Brusque (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -16.6%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.8%

Floresta (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brusque face Floresta in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brusque a 46% chance, the draw 30% and Floresta 24%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Brusque and 0.8 for Floresta (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brusque are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.75 for Floresta. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Brusque vs Floresta Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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