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Caxias vs Maringa Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 11 ·Sunday, June 21, 2026, 14:00

Caxias

PPG 3.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maringa

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.2%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-111.1%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 2.10 +9.6%

Draw 24.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 23.5% 3.20 -14.9%

Over 2.5 54.0% 1.95 +5.3%

Over 3.5 32.6% 3.35 +9.2%

BTTS 53.3% 1.70 -9.4%

Win probability 1X2

Caxias (H) 52.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +9.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

Maringa (A) 23.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 70%

ROI -40.4%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.3%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caxias1.8

Maringa1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.0% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CAXIAS · PPG 3.00

MARINGA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=52.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caxias face Maringa in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, June 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caxias a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Maringa 24%, so Caxias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Caxias and 1.0 for Maringa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caxias are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Maringa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.4%.

Caxias vs Maringa Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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