Today / Brazil - Serie C / Ypiranga vs Botafogo PB

Ypiranga vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 10 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 23:30

Ypiranga

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Botafogo PB

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.8%0-23.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.3%1-111.4%1-26.4%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.9%3-15.4%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.3%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% 47.6% 2.10 +1.8%

Draw 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Away win 27.3% 29.9% 3.35 -5.1%

Over 2.5 54.4% 47.6% 2.10 +14.2%

Over 3.5 33.9% 26.0% 3.85 +30.5%

BTTS 55.7% 54.6% 1.83 +1.9%

Home O1.5 54.8% 45.5% 2.20 +20.6%

Away O1.5 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.7%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ypiranga1.7

Botafogo PB1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

YPIRANGA · PPG 1.75

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 0.60

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=48.5%

Win probability 1X2

Ypiranga (H) 48.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +1.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.0%

Botafogo PB (A) 27.3%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ypiranga face Botafogo PB in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ypiranga a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Botafogo PB 27%, so Ypiranga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ypiranga and 1.1 for Botafogo PB (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ypiranga are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Botafogo PB. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Ypiranga vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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