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Ferroviaria vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 10 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 23:30

Ferroviaria

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Barra FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-116.1%0-27.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.6%1-113.2%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.0%2-15.4%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 51.3% 1.95 -30.0%

Draw 33.3% 33.9% 2.95 -1.8%

Away win 30.8% 25.0% 4.00 +23.2%

Over 2.5 37.8% 37.0% 2.70 +2.1%

Over 3.5 18.9% 18.2% 5.50 +2.4%

BTTS 47.8% 45.5% 2.20 +5.2%

Home O1.5 33.0% 40.8% 2.45 -19.1%

Away O1.5 26.6% 23.1% 4.33 +9.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -30.1%

Bet Hit 37%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.8%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–0✓ 14.6%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria0.8

Barra FC0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA · PPG 1.75

BARRA FC · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -30.0%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -1.8%

Barra FC (A) 30.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria face Barra FC in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Barra FC 31%, so Ferroviaria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ferroviaria and 0.9 for Barra FC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Barra FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%. This match finished 1-0.

Ferroviaria vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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