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Ferroviaria vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 23:30

Ferroviaria

PPG 1.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Barra FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-116.1%0-27.3%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.6%1-113.2%1-26.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.0%2-15.4%2-22.5%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.7%3-11.5%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 1.95 -30.0%

Draw 33.3% 2.95 -1.8%

Away win 30.8% 4.00 +23.2%

Over 2.5 37.8% 2.70 +2.1%

Over 3.5 18.9% 5.50 +2.4%

BTTS 47.8% 2.20 +5.2%

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria (H) 35.9%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -30.0%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -1.8%

Barra FC (A) 30.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +23.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -49.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.8%

D 33% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1 16.1%

#4 1–0 14.6%

#5 0–2 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria0.8

Barra FC0.9

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA · PPG 1.75

BARRA FC · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria face Barra FC in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria a 36% chance, the draw 33% and Barra FC 31%, so Ferroviaria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ferroviaria and 0.9 for Barra FC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.25 for Barra FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.2%.

Ferroviaria vs Barra FC Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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