Today / Brazil - Serie C / Maringa vs Maranhao

Maringa vs Maranhao Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 10 ·Monday, June 15, 2026, 22:30

Maringa

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maranhao

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.3%0-23.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.3%1-110.0%1-26.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.3%3-15.9%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.3%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 49.3% 1.50 -26.1%

Draw 23.8% 3.85 -5.0%

Away win 26.9% 5.60 +30.4%

Over 2.5 60.7% 1.70 +3.2%

Over 3.5 39.8% 2.70 +7.5%

BTTS 61.6% 1.70 +4.7%

Win probability 1X2

Maringa (H) 49.3%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -26.1%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.0%

Maranhao (A) 26.9%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +30.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -49.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Hunt pick CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%HUNT CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.6%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maringa1.9

Maranhao1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINGA · PPG 1.40

MARANHAO · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Match Preview & Prediction

Maringa face Maranhao in Brazil - Serie C on Monday, June 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maringa a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Maranhao 27%, so Maringa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Maringa and 1.4 for Maranhao (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maringa are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Maranhao. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.3%.

Maringa vs Maranhao Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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