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Prostejov vs Usti nad Labem Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Prostejov

PPG 0.90 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Usti nad Labem

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+22.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.4%0-25.2%0-33.4%0-4+2.6%1 1-04.5%1-18.8%1-28.6%1-35.6%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.1%2-34.6%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.0%3-13.9%3-23.9%3-32.5%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.3%4+-22.3%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.7% 38.5% 2.60 -15.0%

Draw 21.7% 30.3% 3.30 -28.4%

Away win 45.6% 41.7% 2.40 +9.4%

Over 2.5 69.8% 57.1% 1.75 +22.1%

Over 3.5 48.5% 35.7% 2.80 +35.8%

BTTS 69.3% 64.5% 1.55 +7.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.3%

A 46% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1✓ 7.2%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Prostejov1.6

Usti nad Labem2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 48.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PROSTEJOV · PPG 0.90

USTI NAD LABEM · PPG 1.36

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.90) vs Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Prostejov (H) 32.7%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -15.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -28.4%

Usti nad Labem (A) 45.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Prostejov face Usti nad Labem in Czech-Republic - FNL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Prostejov a 33% chance, the draw 22% and Usti nad Labem 46%, so Usti nad Labem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Prostejov and 2.0 for Usti nad Labem (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Prostejov are averaging 0.90 points per game versus 1.36 for Usti nad Labem. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Prostejov vs Usti nad Labem Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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