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ÅIFK vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Group B ·Thursday, June 4, 2026, 15:30

ÅIFK

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

P-Iirot

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-14.4%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.8%1-19.2%1-25.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.8%3-16.9%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-16.0%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 1.75 -6.2%

Draw 22.6% 3.40 -13.9%

Away win 23.8% 3.70 -7.2%

Over 2.5 64.1% 1.50 -3.9%

Over 3.5 41.6% 1.91 -20.5%

BTTS 61.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Win probability 1X2

ÅIFK (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -6.2%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.9%

P-Iirot (A) 23.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.4%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0✓ 8.2%

#4 3–1 6.9%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ÅIFK2.1

P-Iirot1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 41.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ÅIFK · PPG 3.00

P-IIROT · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=53.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ÅIFK face P-Iirot in Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B on Thursday, June 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ÅIFK a 54% chance, the draw 23% and P-Iirot 24%, so ÅIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for ÅIFK and 1.2 for P-Iirot (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ÅIFK are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.33 for P-Iirot. This match finished 2-0.

ÅIFK vs P-Iirot Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen - Lohko B

Match Preview & Prediction

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