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Polokwane vs Kaizer Chiefs Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:30

Polokwane

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Kaizer Chiefs

PPG 2.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-030.9%0-116.6%0-24.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.7%1-110.6%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.3%2-13.4%2-20.9%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.3%3-10.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 27.8% 3.60 +15.2%

Draw 42.4% 35.2% 2.84 +20.4%

Away win 25.7% 43.9% 2.28 -41.4%

Over 2.5 11.5% 33.3% 3.00 -65.5%

Over 3.5 3.2% 15.4% 6.50 -79.2%

BTTS 19.6% 42.6% 2.35 -53.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob19.6%

D 42% / xG 0.6-0.5 / U2.5 12% / NoBTTS 20%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 30.9%

#2 1–0 19.7%

#3 0–1 16.6%

#4 1–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polokwane0.6

Kaizer Chiefs0.5

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 11.5% · O3.5 PROB 3.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POLOKWANE · PPG 1.36

KAIZER CHIEFS · PPG 2.22

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

42%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.22) vs Home AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Polokwane (H) 32.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +15.2%

Draw 42.4%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV +20.4%

Kaizer Chiefs (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polokwane face Kaizer Chiefs in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polokwane a 32% chance, the draw 42% and Kaizer Chiefs 26%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.6 for Polokwane and 0.5 for Kaizer Chiefs (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 12% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 20% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polokwane are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.22 for Kaizer Chiefs. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Polokwane vs Kaizer Chiefs Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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