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Pribram vs Sparta Prague B Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 24 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:00

Pribram

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sparta Prague B

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 72.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+32.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-14.2%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.4%1-18.5%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.6%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.6%3-15.8%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-14.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.3% 54.6% 1.83 +32.3%

Draw 18.7% 29.9% 3.35 -37.4%

Away win 8.9% 25.6% 3.90 -65.3%

Over 2.5 47.5% 55.6% 1.80 -14.5%

Over 3.5 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -22.6%

BTTS 36.6% 59.9% 1.67 -38.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.6%

H 72% / xG 2.0-0.5 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 37%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 15.6%

#2 1–0 15.4%

#3 3–0 10.6%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 1–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pribram2.0

Sparta Prague B0.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PRIBRAM · PPG 1.56

SPARTA PRAGUE B · PPG 0.73

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.56), Away POOR (0.73) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Pribram (H) 72.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +32.3%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -37.4%

Sparta Prague B (A) 8.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -65.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pribram face Sparta Prague B in Czech-Republic - FNL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pribram a 72% chance, the draw 19% and Sparta Prague B 9%, so Pribram are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Pribram and 0.5 for Sparta Prague B (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 37% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pribram are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.73 for Sparta Prague B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Pribram vs Sparta Prague B Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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