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Banik Ostrava B vs Sparta Prague B Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 12:00

Banik Ostrava B

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sparta Prague B

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.9%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.3%1-19.8%1-24.3%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.9%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.6%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.0%4+-15.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 40.8% 2.45 +30.3%

Draw 24.7% 29.0% 3.45 -8.9%

Away win 22.1% 40.8% 2.45 -27.5%

Over 2.5 58.2% 60.6% 1.65 -4.0%

Over 3.5 32.5% 38.5% 2.60 -15.5%

BTTS 51.6% 66.7% 1.50 -22.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 9.8%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0✓ 11.3%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Banik Ostrava B2.0

Sparta Prague B0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.2% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BANIK OSTRAVA B · PPG 1.64

SPARTA PRAGUE B · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Banik Ostrava B (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +30.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -8.9%

Sparta Prague B (A) 22.1%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -27.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Banik Ostrava B face Sparta Prague B in Czech-Republic - FNL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Banik Ostrava B a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Sparta Prague B 22%, so Banik Ostrava B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Banik Ostrava B and 0.9 for Sparta Prague B (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Banik Ostrava B are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.86 for Sparta Prague B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Banik Ostrava B vs Sparta Prague B Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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