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SW Essen vs Schonnebeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

SW Essen

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Schonnebeck

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.0%0-25.9%0-33.9%0-4+3.0%1 1-04.6%1-19.1%1-29.0%1-35.9%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-17.0%2-26.8%2-34.5%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.8%3-13.5%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.4% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 43.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 46.2% — — —

BTTS 61.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob61.7%

A 44% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SW Essen1.5

Schonnebeck2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SW ESSEN · PPG 1.20

SCHONNEBECK · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

SW Essen (H) 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Schonnebeck (A) 43.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SW Essen face Schonnebeck in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SW Essen a 32% chance, the draw 24% and Schonnebeck 44%, so Schonnebeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for SW Essen and 2.0 for Schonnebeck (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SW Essen are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Schonnebeck. This match finished 0-4.

SW Essen vs Schonnebeck Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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