Today / Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein / Sonsbeck vs Baumberg

Sonsbeck vs Baumberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Sonsbeck

PPG 1.27 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Baumberg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.0%0-23.8%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.4%1-19.5%1-27.1%1-33.6%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.0%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.8%3-15.7%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.1% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 26.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 44.1% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 49% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sonsbeck1.9

Baumberg1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 44.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SONSBECK · PPG 1.27

BAUMBERG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.27), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Sonsbeck (H) 49.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baumberg (A) 26.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sonsbeck face Baumberg in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sonsbeck a 49% chance, the draw 25% and Baumberg 26%, so Sonsbeck are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Sonsbeck and 1.5 for Baumberg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sonsbeck are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.00 for Baumberg. This match finished 2-4.

Sonsbeck vs Baumberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein Predictions