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Monheim vs SC St. Tonis Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 32 ·Sunday, May 17, 2026, 13:00

Monheim

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SC St. Tonis

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.6%0-25.8%0-34.8%0-4+5.3%1 1-02.8%1-16.9%1-28.6%1-37.1%1-4+8.0%2 2-02.1%2-15.2%2-26.5%2-35.3%2-4+6.0%3 3-01.0%3-12.6%3-23.2%3-32.7%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.4%4+-21.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% — — —

Draw 22.4% — — —

Away win 54.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 56.3% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.0%

A 54% / xG 1.5-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.6%

#2 1–1 6.9%

#3 1–3 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monheim1.5

SC St. Tonis2.5

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MONHEIM · PPG 1.00

SC ST. TONIS · PPG 1.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.93) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Monheim (H) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SC St. Tonis (A) 54.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Monheim face SC St. Tonis in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, May 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monheim a 24% chance, the draw 22% and SC St. Tonis 54%, so SC St. Tonis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Monheim and 2.5 for SC St. Tonis (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monheim are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.93 for SC St. Tonis. This match finished 2-1.

Monheim vs SC St. Tonis Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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