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Nosaby vs Solvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Nosaby

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Solvesborg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.5%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.5%1-19.4%1-25.9%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.7%3-24.2%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.5%4+-23.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 47.6% 2.10 +8.6%

Draw 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Away win 24.3% 35.7% 2.80 -19.2%

Over 2.5 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Over 3.5 42.4% 43.5% 2.30 -2.5%

BTTS 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.7%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 7.7%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nosaby2.1

Solvesborg1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 42.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NOSABY · PPG 1.67

SOLVESBORG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Nosaby (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +8.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Solvesborg (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nosaby face Solvesborg in Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nosaby a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Solvesborg 24%, so Nosaby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Nosaby and 1.3 for Solvesborg (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nosaby are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Solvesborg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Nosaby vs Solvesborg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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