Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland / IFK Trelleborg vs Osterlen

IFK Trelleborg vs Osterlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

IFK Trelleborg

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Osterlen

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-15.3%0-21.7%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-19.8%1-23.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.4%2-19.0%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.9%3-15.5%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-13.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.9% 55.6% 1.80 +2.4%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -5.1%

Away win 18.7% 27.8% 3.60 -19.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 69.0% 1.45 -31.0%

Over 3.5 23.5% 47.6% 2.10 -30.4%

BTTS 48.6% 71.4% 1.40 -32.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.7%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.4%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 1–1✓ 9.8%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Trelleborg1.8

Osterlen0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.50

OSTERLEN · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=56.9%

Win probability 1X2

IFK Trelleborg (H) 56.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +2.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -5.1%

Osterlen (A) 18.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Trelleborg face Osterlen in Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Trelleborg a 57% chance, the draw 24% and Osterlen 19%, so IFK Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for IFK Trelleborg and 0.6 for Osterlen (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Trelleborg are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Osterlen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 1-1.

IFK Trelleborg vs Osterlen Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland Predictions