Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland / Karlskrona vs Staffanstorp Un

Karlskrona vs Staffanstorp Un Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Karlskrona

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Staffanstorp Un

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.0%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.9%1-17.5%1-23.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-19.4%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.4%3-17.9%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-19.0%4+-24.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.8% 71.4% 1.40 -14.9%

Draw 21.3% 22.2% 4.50 -2.5%

Away win 17.9% 16.0% 6.25 +7.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 72.5% 1.38 -11.8%

Over 3.5 45.5% 51.3% 1.95 -11.3%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.7%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 61% / xG 2.5-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–1✓ 7.5%

#4 3–0 8.4%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlskrona2.5

Staffanstorp Un0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSKRONA · PPG 2.33

STAFFANSTORP UN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=60.8%

Win probability 1X2

Karlskrona (H) 60.8%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -14.9%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -2.5%

Staffanstorp Un (A) 17.9%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +7.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlskrona face Staffanstorp Un in Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlskrona a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Staffanstorp Un 18%, so Karlskrona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Karlskrona and 0.9 for Staffanstorp Un (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlskrona are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Staffanstorp Un. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Karlskrona vs Staffanstorp Un Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland Predictions