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Torns vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Södra Götaland - 8 ·Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 17:00

Torns

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lilla Torg

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.0%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.0%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.6%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-15.2%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

Draw 25.5% 27.0% 3.70 -3.4%

Away win 22.0% 27.8% 3.60 -12.5%

Over 2.5 59.4% 65.4% 1.53 -9.1%

Over 3.5 35.1% 43.5% 2.30 -19.3%

BTTS 54.6% 69.0% 1.45 -20.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -55.7%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torns2.0

Lilla Torg1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TORNS · PPG 1.00

LILLA TORG · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Torns (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -3.4%

Lilla Torg (A) 22.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torns face Lilla Torg in Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland on Wednesday, May 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torns a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Lilla Torg 22%, so Torns are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Torns and 1.0 for Lilla Torg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torns are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Lilla Torg. This match finished 0-2.

Torns vs Lilla Torg Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Östra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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