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Polokwane vs Marumo G. Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

Polokwane

PPG 1.36 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Marumo G.

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-112.0%0-22.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.7%1-110.9%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.3%2-14.9%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.1%3-11.5%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 28.6% 3.50 +44.9%

Draw 38.6% 31.3% 3.20 +23.5%

Away win 20.0% 46.7% 2.14 -34.3%

Over 2.5 25.8% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 3.5 5.2% 18.2% 5.50 -42.8%

BTTS 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.8%

H 41% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 1–0 22.7%

#3 1–1✓ 10.9%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 10.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polokwane0.9

Marumo G.0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 5.2%

Form & verdict PPG

POLOKWANE · PPG 1.36

MARUMO G. · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.36) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Polokwane (H) 41.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +44.9%

Draw 38.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +23.5%

Marumo G. (A) 20.0%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV -34.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polokwane face Marumo G. in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polokwane a 41% chance, the draw 39% and Marumo G. 20%, so Polokwane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Polokwane and 0.5 for Marumo G. (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polokwane are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.64 for Marumo G.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Polokwane vs Marumo G. Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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