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Marumo G. vs Siwelele Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Marumo G.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Siwelele

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-028.7%0-112.6%0-22.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.2%1-110.2%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.4%2-14.1%2-20.9%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.5%3-11.1%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 34.5% 2.90 +20.6%

Draw 39.9% 37.9% 2.64 +5.3%

Away win 18.5% 34.7% 2.88 -46.7%

Over 2.5 13.1% 33.3% 3.00 -60.7%

Over 3.5 3.8% 16.0% 6.25 -76.3%

BTTS 19.7% 45.5% 2.20 -56.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob19.7%

H 42% / xG 0.8-0.4 / U2.5 13% / NoBTTS 20%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 28.7%

#2 1–0 23.2%

#3 0–1 12.6%

#4 1–1 10.2%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marumo G.0.8

Siwelele0.4

COMBINED 1.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 13.1% · O3.5 PROB 3.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MARUMO G. · PPG 1.00

SIWELELE · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

42%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Marumo G. (H) 41.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +20.6%

Draw 39.9%

ODDS 2.64 · IMPLIED 37.9% EV +5.3%

Siwelele (A) 18.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -46.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marumo G. face Siwelele in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marumo G. a 42% chance, the draw 40% and Siwelele 19%, so Marumo G. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Marumo G. and 0.4 for Siwelele (1.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 13% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 20% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marumo G. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.64 for Siwelele. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Marumo G. vs Siwelele Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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