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TS Galaxy vs Mamelodi S. Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 29 ·Tuesday, May 12, 2026, 17:30

TS Galaxy

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Mamelodi S.

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

Away 69% chance

Model probability 57.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-118.8%0-213.7%0-36.7%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.6%1-111.1%1-28.1%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-02.2%2-13.3%2-22.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.2% 10.5% 9.50 +15.2%

Draw 29.5% 23.1% 4.33 +16.6%

Away win 57.3% 73.5% 1.36 -22.1%

Over 2.5 43.9% 52.4% 1.91 -16.2%

Over 3.5 15.2% 30.8% 3.25 -30.4%

BTTS 45.9% 46.5% 2.15 -1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob45.9%

A 57% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.8%

#2 0–0 12.9%

#3 0–2 13.7%

#4 1–1 11.1%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

TS Galaxy0.6

Mamelodi S.1.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TS GALAXY · PPG 1.29

MAMELODI S. · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

TS Galaxy (H) 13.2%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +15.2%

Draw 29.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +16.6%

Mamelodi S. (A) 57.3%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

TS Galaxy face Mamelodi S. in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives TS Galaxy a 13% chance, the draw 30% and Mamelodi S. 57%, so Mamelodi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for TS Galaxy and 1.5 for Mamelodi S. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, TS Galaxy are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.07 for Mamelodi S.. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 3-2.

TS Galaxy vs Mamelodi S. Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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