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Zbrojovka Brno vs Vlasim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 28 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 15:00

Zbrojovka Brno

PPG 2.62 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vlasim

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-16.4%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-111.0%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-15.4%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-13.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 71.4% 1.40 -28.6%

Draw 26.4% 23.1% 4.33 +8.6%

Away win 22.6% 16.1% 6.20 +24.1%

Over 2.5 46.5% 65.4% 1.53 -28.8%

Over 3.5 24.2% 43.5% 2.30 -26.6%

BTTS 51.0% 60.6% 1.65 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.0%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–0✓ 14.2%

#3 2–0 12.2%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zbrojovka Brno1.7

Vlasim0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 24.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZBROJOVKA BRNO · PPG 2.62

VLASIM · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.62) vs P(Home)=51.0%

Win probability 1X2

Zbrojovka Brno (H) 51.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -28.6%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +8.6%

Vlasim (A) 22.6%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zbrojovka Brno face Vlasim in Czech-Republic - FNL on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 51% chance, the draw 26% and Vlasim 23%, so Zbrojovka Brno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Zbrojovka Brno and 0.8 for Vlasim (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.23 for Vlasim. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Zbrojovka Brno vs Vlasim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Czech-Republic - FNL Predictions