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SC St. Tonis vs Baumberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:30

SC St. Tonis

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Baumberg

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.0%0-20.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.0%1-13.3%1-22.8%1-31.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-03.5%2-15.8%2-24.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.0%3-16.8%3-25.7%3-33.2%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-114.4%4+-212.1%4+-36.8%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 78.8% — — —

Over 3.5 75.8% — — —

BTTS 66.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.7%

H 58% / xG 3.5-1.7 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.8%

#2 4–1 5.9%

#3 2–1 5.8%

#4 3–2 5.7%

#5 4–2 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC St. Tonis3.5

Baumberg1.7

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.8% · O3.5 PROB 75.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SC ST. TONIS · PPG 1.60

BAUMBERG · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.60) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

SC St. Tonis (H) 58.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baumberg (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SC St. Tonis face Baumberg in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC St. Tonis a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Baumberg 21%, so SC St. Tonis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for SC St. Tonis and 1.7 for Baumberg (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC St. Tonis are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Baumberg. This match finished 0-0.

SC St. Tonis vs Baumberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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