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Blau-W. Dingden vs SW Essen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 31 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 13:00

Blau-W. Dingden

PPG 1.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SW Essen

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.5%0-25.2%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-08.3%1-111.5%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.8%2-26.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.2%3-14.5%3-23.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% — — —

Draw 25.6% — — —

Away win 35.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.3% — — —

Over 3.5 33.4% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob58.8%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blau-W. Dingden1.5

SW Essen1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BLAU-W. DINGDEN · PPG 1.33

SW ESSEN · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.33) vs Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Blau-W. Dingden (H) 39.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SW Essen (A) 35.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Blau-W. Dingden face SW Essen in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blau-W. Dingden a 39% chance, the draw 26% and SW Essen 35%, so Blau-W. Dingden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Blau-W. Dingden and 1.4 for SW Essen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blau-W. Dingden are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.73 for SW Essen. This match finished 3-0.

Blau-W. Dingden vs SW Essen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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