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Magesi vs Orlando Pirates Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 18:00

Magesi

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Orlando Pirates

PPG 2.31 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Away 71% chance

Model probability 62.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-117.2%0-215.6%0-39.5%0-4+6.6%1 1-05.1%1-19.3%1-28.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.5%2 2-01.4%2-12.5%2-22.3%2-31.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% 9.3% 10.75 +19.3%

Draw 24.9% 23.3% 4.30 +4.2%

Away win 62.8% 74.1% 1.35 -15.2%

Over 2.5 46.5% 45.5% 2.20 +2.3%

Over 3.5 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

BTTS 46.7% 38.5% 2.60 +21.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob46.7%

A 63% / xG 0.5-1.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.2%

#2 0–2 15.6%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 1–1 9.3%

#5 0–3✓ 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magesi0.5

Orlando Pirates1.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 21.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGESI · PPG 1.15

ORLANDO PIRATES · PPG 2.31

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

71%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.31) vs Home AVERAGE (1.15)

Win probability 1X2

Magesi (H) 12.3%

ODDS 10.75 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +19.3%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +4.2%

Orlando Pirates (A) 62.8%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magesi face Orlando Pirates in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magesi a 12% chance, the draw 25% and Orlando Pirates 63%, so Orlando Pirates are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Magesi and 1.8 for Orlando Pirates (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magesi are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 2.31 for Orlando Pirates. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 0-3.

Magesi vs Orlando Pirates Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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