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Mamelodi S. vs Siwelele Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 15:30

Mamelodi S.

PPG 2.57 · HOME

7 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Siwelele

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.7%0-17.4%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-025.2%1-19.0%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.4%2-15.5%2-21.0%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.2%3-12.2%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-10.9%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 82.0% 1.22 -36.1%

Draw 29.8% 19.6% 5.10 +31.2%

Away win 17.8% 5.6% 18.00 +132.2%

Over 2.5 35.1% 51.8% 1.93 -32.3%

Over 3.5 7.6% 30.3% 3.30 -45.0%

BTTS 39.6% 36.4% 2.75 +8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob39.6%

H 52% / xG 1.2-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 25.2%

#2 0–0 20.7%

#3 2–0 15.4%

#4 1–1 9.0%

#5 3–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mamelodi S.1.2

Siwelele0.4

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAMELODI S. · PPG 2.57

SIWELELE · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Mamelodi S. (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -36.1%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +31.2%

Siwelele (A) 17.8%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV +132.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mamelodi S. face Siwelele in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mamelodi S. a 52% chance, the draw 30% and Siwelele 18%, so Mamelodi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mamelodi S. and 0.4 for Siwelele (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mamelodi S. are averaging 2.57 points per game versus 0.69 for Siwelele. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +132.2%. This match finished 7-4.

Mamelodi S. vs Siwelele Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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