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South-Africa - Premier Soccer League logo South-Africa flag South-Africa - Premier Soccer League Regular Season - 28 Lucas Moripe Stadium· Atteridgeville Saturday, May 9, 2026 15:30
Mamelodi S. logo Mamelodi S. PPG 2.57
7-4 MISS
Siwelele logo Siwelele PPG 0.69
Away· +132.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 52.4%
Odds: 1.22 EV: -36.1%
Draw 29.8%
Odds: 5.10 EV: +31.2%
Away 17.8%
Odds: 18.00 EV: +132.2%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 35.1% Odds: 1.93 -32.3%
Over 3.5 7.6% Odds: 3.30 -45.0%
BTTS 39.6% Odds: 2.75 +8.9%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 0-0
3rd 2-0
4th 1-1
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Mamelodi S.
1.22
Siwelele
0.36

Model Suggestion

Home -36.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -36.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+132.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%
O2.5/Under 71%
BTTS/No 60%
Score Hit 65%
ROI -19.2%
Bet Hit 39% (13 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.57) vs P(Home)=52.4%

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