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Marumo G. vs Richards Bay Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Marumo G.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Richards Bay

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.2%0-116.7%0-26.0%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.3%1-112.4%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.4%2-14.6%2-21.6%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.6%3-11.1%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 48.1% 2.08 -29.7%

Draw 41.0% 32.8% 3.05 +25.1%

Away win 25.2% 26.0% 3.85 -1.8%

Over 2.5 25.8% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

Over 3.5 6.1% 18.2% 5.50 -39.9%

BTTS 45.9% 45.5% 2.20 +1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.9%

D 41% / xG 0.7-0.7 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 23.2%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 0–1 16.7%

#4 1–1✓ 12.4%

#5 2–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marumo G.0.7

Richards Bay0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MARUMO G. · PPG 1.00

RICHARDS BAY · PPG 0.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

46%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.77)

Win probability 1X2

Marumo G. (H) 33.8%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -29.7%

Draw 41.0%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +25.1%

Richards Bay (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marumo G. face Richards Bay in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marumo G. a 34% chance, the draw 41% and Richards Bay 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Marumo G. and 0.7 for Richards Bay (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marumo G. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.77 for Richards Bay. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +25.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Marumo G. vs Richards Bay Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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