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Golden Arrows vs Polokwane Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 28 ·Saturday, May 9, 2026, 13:00

Golden Arrows

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Polokwane

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.3%0-115.0%0-24.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-112.2%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.7%2-15.0%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.1%3-11.3%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 41.3% 2.42 -15.5%

Draw 41.0% 35.0% 2.86 +17.3%

Away win 24.1% 30.8% 3.25 -13.0%

Over 2.5 25.8% 35.7% 2.80 -16.7%

Over 3.5 6.0% 17.4% 5.75 -39.3%

BTTS 45.9% 46.5% 2.15 -1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 35% / xG 0.8-0.6 / U2.5 26% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 23.3%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–1 15.0%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Golden Arrows0.8

Polokwane0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 25.8% · O3.5 PROB 6.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GOLDEN ARROWS · PPG 1.85

POLOKWANE · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.85) > Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Golden Arrows (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -15.5%

Draw 41.0%

ODDS 2.86 · IMPLIED 35.0% EV +17.3%

Polokwane (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Golden Arrows face Polokwane in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, May 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Golden Arrows a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Polokwane 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Golden Arrows and 0.6 for Polokwane (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 26% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Golden Arrows are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.36 for Polokwane. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Golden Arrows vs Polokwane Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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