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Durban City vs Stellenbosch Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 28 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:30

Durban City

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Stellenbosch

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.1%0-113.5%0-24.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-019.3%1-112.4%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.8%2-15.7%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.7%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 36.4% 2.75 +6.2%

Draw 35.8% 35.7% 2.80 +0.2%

Away win 25.5% 34.7% 2.88 -15.9%

Over 2.5 35.1% 35.7% 2.80 -1.7%

Over 3.5 7.3% 17.4% 5.75 -34.8%

BTTS 45.9% 47.6% 2.10 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.9%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 21.1%

#2 1–0 19.3%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Durban City0.9

Stellenbosch0.6

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 7.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DURBAN CITY · PPG 1.85

STELLENBOSCH · PPG 1.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

46%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.85) > Away AVERAGE (1.08)

Win probability 1X2

Durban City (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +6.2%

Draw 35.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +0.2%

Stellenbosch (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Durban City face Stellenbosch in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Durban City a 39% chance, the draw 36% and Stellenbosch 26%, so Durban City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Durban City and 0.6 for Stellenbosch (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Durban City are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.08 for Stellenbosch. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Durban City vs Stellenbosch Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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