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Chrudim vs Vlasim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 08:15

Chrudim

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Vlasim

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.6%0-25.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.4%1-111.2%1-28.5%1-34.3%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.5%2-18.3%2-26.3%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 38.5% 2.60 -4.1%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -22.2%

Away win 38.8% 40.0% 2.50 -3.0%

Over 2.5 57.6% 54.1% 1.85 +6.6%

Over 3.5 35.2% 32.3% 3.10 +9.1%

BTTS 60.3% 60.6% 1.65 -0.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.3%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 7.6%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chrudim1.5

Vlasim1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.6% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CHRUDIM · PPG 1.36

VLASIM · PPG 1.09

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.09)

Win probability 1X2

Chrudim (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -4.1%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -22.2%

Vlasim (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chrudim face Vlasim in Czech-Republic - FNL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chrudim a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Vlasim 39%, so Vlasim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chrudim and 1.5 for Vlasim (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chrudim are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.09 for Vlasim. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Chrudim vs Vlasim Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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