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Reading U21 vs Derby C. U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Monday, April 13, 2026

Reading U21

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Derby C. U21

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.9%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.1%1-111.5%1-26.5%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 51.3% 1.95 -2.9%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -14.9%

Away win 26.0% 34.5% 2.90 -24.6%

Over 2.5 53.2% — — —

Over 3.5 30.9% — — —

BTTS 55.1% 69.4% 1.44 -20.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.1%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reading U211.7

Derby C. U211.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

READING U21 · PPG 1.22

DERBY C. U21 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.22) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Reading U21 (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -2.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.9%

Derby C. U21 (A) 26.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reading U21 face Derby C. U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reading U21 a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Derby C. U21 26%, so Reading U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Reading U21 and 1.1 for Derby C. U21 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reading U21 are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 0.67 for Derby C. U21.

Reading U21 vs Derby C. U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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