Today / England - Premier League 2 Division One / Man City U21 vs Norwich U21

Man City U21 vs Norwich U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Monday, April 13, 2026

Man City U21

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Norwich U21

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 89.5% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-10.9%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.3%1-13.4%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.5%2-16.0%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.3%3-17.2%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-025.5%4+-116.2%4+-25.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 89.5% 89.3% 1.12 +0.2%

Draw 7.3% 12.5% 8.00 -41.6%

Away win 3.2% 9.1% 11.00 -64.8%

Over 2.5 79.2% — — —

Over 3.5 60.8% — — —

BTTS 45.6% 61.7% 1.62 -26.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.6%

H 90% / xG 3.6-0.6 / O2.5 79% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.3%

#2 4–0 10.1%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 5–0 7.3%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Man City U213.6

Norwich U210.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.2% · O3.5 PROB 60.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MAN CITY U21 · PPG 2.78

NORWICH U21 · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.78), Away POOR (0.89) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Man City U21 (H) 89.5%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV +0.2%

Draw 7.3%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -41.6%

Norwich U21 (A) 3.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -64.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Man City U21 face Norwich U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Man City U21 a 90% chance, the draw 7% and Norwich U21 3%, so Man City U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Man City U21 and 0.6 for Norwich U21 (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Man City U21 are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 0.89 for Norwich U21. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.2%.

Man City U21 vs Norwich U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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