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C. Palace U21 vs Arsenal U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Monday, April 13, 2026

C. Palace U21

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arsenal U21

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+12.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.3%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-111.1%1-25.7%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.8%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.9% 48.8% 2.05 +12.6%

Draw 23.4% 27.8% 3.60 -15.8%

Away win 21.7% 37.0% 2.70 -41.4%

Over 2.5 52.9% — — —

Over 3.5 30.7% — — —

BTTS 53.1% 74.1% 1.35 -28.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–0 10.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

C. Palace U211.8

Arsenal U211.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

C. PALACE U21 · PPG 1.67

ARSENAL U21 · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

C. Palace U21 (H) 54.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +12.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.8%

Arsenal U21 (A) 21.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

C. Palace U21 face Arsenal U21 in England - Premier League 2 Division One on Monday, April 13, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives C. Palace U21 a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Arsenal U21 22%, so C. Palace U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for C. Palace U21 and 1.0 for Arsenal U21 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, C. Palace U21 are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Arsenal U21. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.6%.

C. Palace U21 vs Arsenal U21 Prediction— England - Premier League 2 Division One

Match Preview & Prediction

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