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Mamelodi S. vs Polokwane Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Mamelodi S.

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Polokwane

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.9%0-19.6%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.7%1-112.1%1-23.9%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-17.6%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.0%3-13.2%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 78.1% 1.28 -36.6%

Draw 33.3% 21.5% 4.65 +54.9%

Away win 17.2% 7.1% 14.00 +140.8%

Over 2.5 29.8% 48.8% 2.05 -38.9%

Over 3.5 12.6% 28.6% 3.50 -55.9%

BTTS 35.9% 37.7% 2.65 -4.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 63%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.9%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.6 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.7%

#2 0–0 14.9%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.8%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mamelodi S.1.3

Polokwane0.6

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 29.8% · O3.5 PROB 12.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MAMELODI S. · PPG 2.67

POLOKWANE · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=49.5%

Win probability 1X2

Mamelodi S. (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -36.6%

Draw 33.3%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +54.9%

Polokwane (A) 17.2%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +140.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mamelodi S. face Polokwane in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mamelodi S. a 50% chance, the draw 33% and Polokwane 17%, so Mamelodi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mamelodi S. and 0.6 for Polokwane (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mamelodi S. are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Polokwane. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +140.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Mamelodi S. vs Polokwane Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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