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Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Fidelis Andria

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Sarnese

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+44.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.9%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.6%1-19.8%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.7%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.2%3-16.4%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.7% 45.5% 2.20 +44.5%

Draw 20.6% 33.9% 2.95 -39.2%

Away win 13.7% 32.3% 3.10 -57.5%

Over 2.5 51.9% 43.5% 2.30 +19.4%

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 46.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.4%

H 66% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.6%

#2 2–0 12.5%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 2–1✓ 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fidelis Andria2.0

Sarnese0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FIDELIS ANDRIA · PPG 2.00

SARNESE · PPG 0.93

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fidelis Andria (H) 65.7%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +44.5%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -39.2%

Sarnese (A) 13.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -57.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fidelis Andria face Sarnese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fidelis Andria a 66% chance, the draw 21% and Sarnese 14%, so Fidelis Andria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fidelis Andria and 0.8 for Sarnese (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fidelis Andria are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.93 for Sarnese. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +44.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Fidelis Andria vs Sarnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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