Sarnese vs Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Italy - Serie D - Girone H Group H - 33 Stadio Felice Squitieri· Sarno Sunday, April 26, 2026 13:00

Sarnese PPG 1.56

2-2 MISS

Francavilla PPG 1.38

Over2.5· +13.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarnese face Francavilla in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarnese a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Francavilla 25%, so Sarnese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sarnese and 0.9 for Francavilla (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarnese are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.38 for Francavilla. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.9%

Odds: 1.85 EV: -13.2%

Draw 28.3%

Odds: 3.00 EV: -15.1%

Away 24.8%

Odds: 3.95 EV: -2.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 2.20 +13.5%

Over 3.5 29.7% Odds: — —

BTTS 53.4% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sarnese

1.83

Francavilla

0.92

Model SuggestionBTTS  NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is — at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over2.5 (+13.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.38)