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Sarnese vs Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sarnese

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Francavilla

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-15.9%0-22.7%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.7%1-110.8%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.5%3-16.0%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 54.1% 1.85 -13.2%

Draw 28.3% 33.3% 3.00 -15.1%

Away win 24.8% 25.3% 3.95 -2.0%

Over 2.5 51.6% 45.5% 2.20 +13.5%

Over 3.5 29.7% — — —

BTTS 53.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.4%

H 47% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarnese1.8

Francavilla0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SARNESE · PPG 1.56

FRANCAVILLA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Sarnese (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -13.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -15.1%

Francavilla (A) 24.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarnese face Francavilla in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarnese a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Francavilla 25%, so Sarnese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Sarnese and 0.9 for Francavilla (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarnese are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.38 for Francavilla. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Sarnese vs Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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