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Nola vs Ferrandina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Nola

PPG 1.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ferrandina

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 77.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+27.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-13.2%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.3%1-17.3%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.4%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.8%3-16.5%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-16.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.1% 60.6% 1.65 +27.2%

Draw 15.7% 29.9% 3.35 -47.4%

Away win 7.2% 21.7% 4.60 -66.9%

Over 2.5 54.4% 47.6% 2.10 +14.2%

Over 3.5 32.0% — — —

BTTS 38.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob38.1%

H 77% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.3%

#2 1–0 13.3%

#3 3–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nola2.3

Ferrandina0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NOLA · PPG 1.40

FERRANDINA · PPG 0.13

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.40), Away POOR (0.13) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Nola (H) 77.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV +27.2%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -47.4%

Ferrandina (A) 7.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -66.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nola face Ferrandina in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nola a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Ferrandina 7%, so Nola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Nola and 0.6 for Ferrandina (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nola are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.13 for Ferrandina. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +27.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Nola vs Ferrandina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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