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Citta di Fasano vs Martina Calcio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Citta di Fasano

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Martina Calcio

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.5% vs bookmaker-implied 38.2% — a clear edge.

+34.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-17.8%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.7%1-112.1%1-25.7%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.4%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.1%3-14.9%3-22.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 38.2% 2.62 +34.9%

Draw 25.5% 31.3% 3.20 -18.4%

Away win 23.0% 42.0% 2.38 -45.3%

Over 2.5 45.6% 48.8% 2.05 -6.5%

Over 3.5 24.3% — — —

BTTS 48.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.3%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 12.7%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Citta di Fasano1.6

Martina Calcio0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.6% · O3.5 PROB 24.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTA DI FASANO · PPG 2.13

MARTINA CALCIO · PPG 1.53

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.13) > Away GOOD (1.53)

Win probability 1X2

Citta di Fasano (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +34.9%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -18.4%

Martina Calcio (A) 23.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Citta di Fasano face Martina Calcio in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Citta di Fasano a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Martina Calcio 23%, so Citta di Fasano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Citta di Fasano and 0.9 for Martina Calcio (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Citta di Fasano are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 1.53 for Martina Calcio. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +34.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Citta di Fasano vs Martina Calcio Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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