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V. Francavilla vs Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Italy - Serie D - Girone H logo Italy flag Italy - Serie D - Girone H Group H - 32 Stadio Giovanni Paolo II· Francavilla Fontana Sunday, April 19, 2026 13:00
V. Francavilla logo V. Francavilla PPG 1.33
0-3 MISS
Francavilla logo Francavilla PPG 1.27
Home· +20.7% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Francavilla face Francavilla in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Francavilla a 63% chance, the draw 23% and Francavilla 14%, so V. Francavilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for V. Francavilla and 0.7 for Francavilla (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Francavilla are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.27 for Francavilla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.7%. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 63.2%
Odds: 1.91 EV: +20.7%
Draw 22.9%
Odds: 3.10 EV: -29.0%
Away 13.9%
Odds: 3.65 EV: -49.3%
Model lean: Home
Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 43.5% Odds: 2.15 -6.5%
Over 3.5 22.5% Odds: —
BTTS 40.5% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0
2nd 2-0
3rd 1-1
4th 2-1
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

V. Francavilla
1.75
Francavilla
0.67

Model Suggestion

Home +20.7% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
60%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

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