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V. Francavilla vs Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

V. Francavilla

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Francavilla

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.2% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a clear edge.

+20.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.0%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.5%1-110.5%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.6%2-19.1%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.9%3-15.3%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-13.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 52.4% 1.91 +20.7%

Draw 22.9% 32.3% 3.10 -29.0%

Away win 13.9% 27.4% 3.65 -49.3%

Over 2.5 43.5% 46.5% 2.15 -6.5%

Over 3.5 22.5% — — —

BTTS 40.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob40.5%

H 63% / xG 1.7-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

V. Francavilla1.7

Francavilla0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.5%

Form & verdict PPG

V. FRANCAVILLA · PPG 1.33

FRANCAVILLA · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

V. Francavilla (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +20.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -29.0%

Francavilla (A) 13.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -49.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Francavilla face Francavilla in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Francavilla a 63% chance, the draw 23% and Francavilla 14%, so V. Francavilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for V. Francavilla and 0.7 for Francavilla (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Francavilla are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.27 for Francavilla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +20.7%. This match finished 0-3.

V. Francavilla vs Francavilla Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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