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Manfredonia vs Fidelis Andria Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Manfredonia

PPG 1.81 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Fidelis Andria

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.2%0-112.1%0-24.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.3%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.3%2-17.0%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.3%3-12.5%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 39.2% 2.55 -0.8%

Draw 33.6% 33.9% 2.95 -0.9%

Away win 27.5% 39.2% 2.55 -29.9%

Over 2.5 38.0% 45.5% 2.20 -16.4%

Over 3.5 11.2% — — —

BTTS 49.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.1%

H 39% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 16.2%

#2 1–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 12.1%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Manfredonia1.1

Fidelis Andria0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MANFREDONIA · PPG 1.81

FIDELIS ANDRIA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.81) vs P(Home)=38.9%

Win probability 1X2

Manfredonia (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -0.8%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -0.9%

Fidelis Andria (A) 27.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -29.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Manfredonia face Fidelis Andria in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Manfredonia a 39% chance, the draw 34% and Fidelis Andria 28%, so Manfredonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Manfredonia and 0.8 for Fidelis Andria (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Manfredonia are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 0.88 for Fidelis Andria. This match finished 0-0.

Manfredonia vs Fidelis Andria Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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