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Union Frintrop vs SC St. Tonis Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Union Frintrop

PPG 1.43 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SC St. Tonis

PPG 2.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.7%0-25.1%0-33.7%0-4+3.4%1 1-03.6%1-17.8%1-28.5%1-36.2%1-4+5.6%2 2-03.0%2-16.4%2-27.0%2-35.1%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.6%3-13.6%3-23.9%3-32.8%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 48.8% — — —

Over 2.5 73.7% — — —

Over 3.5 53.3% — — —

BTTS 72.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob72.9%

A 49% / xG 1.7-2.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Frintrop1.7

SC St. Tonis2.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION FRINTROP · PPG 1.43

SC ST. TONIS · PPG 2.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.07) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Union Frintrop (H) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SC St. Tonis (A) 48.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Frintrop face SC St. Tonis in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Frintrop a 28% chance, the draw 23% and SC St. Tonis 49%, so SC St. Tonis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Union Frintrop and 2.2 for SC St. Tonis (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Frintrop are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.07 for SC St. Tonis. This match finished 4-2.

Union Frintrop vs SC St. Tonis Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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