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Homberg vs Hilden Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Homberg

PPG 1.29 · HOME

3 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hilden

PPG 2.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.5%0-26.0%0-34.3%0-4+3.8%1 1-03.9%1-18.4%1-29.0%1-36.4%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.3%2-26.8%2-34.9%2-4+4.3%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.4%3-32.4%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.6% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 51.1% — — —

Over 2.5 70.7% — — —

Over 3.5 49.7% — — —

BTTS 70.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob70.0%

A 51% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Homberg1.5

Hilden2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HOMBERG · PPG 1.29

HILDEN · PPG 2.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.21) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Homberg (H) 25.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hilden (A) 51.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Homberg face Hilden in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Homberg a 26% chance, the draw 23% and Hilden 51%, so Hilden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Homberg and 2.2 for Hilden (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Homberg are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.21 for Hilden. This match finished 3-5.

Homberg vs Hilden Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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