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Zbrojovka Brno vs Usti nad Labem Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 15:00

Zbrojovka Brno

PPG 2.58 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Usti nad Labem

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.7%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.6%1-19.6%1-25.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-16.8%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 66.7% 1.50 -13.5%

Draw 23.8% 24.4% 4.10 -2.4%

Away win 18.5% 19.0% 5.25 -2.9%

Over 2.5 61.5% 66.7% 1.50 -7.8%

Over 3.5 39.2% 43.5% 2.30 -9.8%

BTTS 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob60.1%

H 58% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zbrojovka Brno2.1

Usti nad Labem1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ZBROJOVKA BRNO · PPG 2.58

USTI NAD LABEM · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.58) vs P(Home)=57.7%

Win probability 1X2

Zbrojovka Brno (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -13.5%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -2.4%

Usti nad Labem (A) 18.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zbrojovka Brno face Usti nad Labem in Czech-Republic - FNL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 58% chance, the draw 24% and Usti nad Labem 19%, so Zbrojovka Brno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.1 for Usti nad Labem (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 2.58 points per game versus 1.25 for Usti nad Labem. This match finished 3-0.

Zbrojovka Brno vs Usti nad Labem Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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