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Chrudim vs Sparta Prague B Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, May 2, 2026, 08:15

Chrudim

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sparta Prague B

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-16.2%0-23.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.1%1-111.0%1-26.0%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.8%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.4%3-15.8%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.9%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 50.0% 2.00 +4.0%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 21.4% 30.3% 3.30 -29.4%

Over 2.5 54.7% 57.1% 1.75 -4.3%

Over 3.5 32.4% 35.7% 2.80 -9.3%

BTTS 56.8% 63.7% 1.57 -10.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.8%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.1 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 0–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chrudim1.8

Sparta Prague B1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CHRUDIM · PPG 1.25

SPARTA PRAGUE B · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Chrudim (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +4.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Sparta Prague B (A) 21.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -29.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chrudim face Sparta Prague B in Czech-Republic - FNL on Saturday, May 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chrudim a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Sparta Prague B 21%, so Chrudim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Chrudim and 1.1 for Sparta Prague B (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chrudim are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.67 for Sparta Prague B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Chrudim vs Sparta Prague B Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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