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SW Essen vs G. Ratingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 30 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 13:00

SW Essen

PPG 1.29 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

G. Ratingen

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.8%0-25.3%0-33.8%0-4+3.5%1 1-03.6%1-17.8%1-28.6%1-36.2%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-27.0%2-35.1%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.6%3-13.5%3-23.8%3-32.8%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.0%4+-22.2%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.7% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 49.4% — — —

Over 2.5 73.4% — — —

Over 3.5 53.0% — — —

BTTS 72.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob72.6%

A 49% / xG 1.6-2.2 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.8%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SW Essen1.6

G. Ratingen2.2

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.4% · O3.5 PROB 53.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SW ESSEN · PPG 1.29

G. RATINGEN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

SW Essen (H) 27.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

G. Ratingen (A) 49.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

SW Essen face G. Ratingen in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SW Essen a 28% chance, the draw 23% and G. Ratingen 49%, so G. Ratingen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SW Essen and 2.2 for G. Ratingen (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SW Essen are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 2.00 for G. Ratingen. This match finished 0-1.

SW Essen vs G. Ratingen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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