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Hilden vs SW Essen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:30

Hilden

PPG 1.79 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SW Essen

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.4%0-22.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.8%1-16.2%1-25.1%1-32.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.9%2-18.0%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-04.2%3-16.9%3-25.7%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-18.2%4+-26.8%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.5% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 26.6% — — —

Over 2.5 62.2% — — —

Over 3.5 60.8% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

H 48% / xG 2.6-1.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 3–1 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 3–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hilden2.6

SW Essen1.6

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 60.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HILDEN · PPG 1.79

SW ESSEN · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.79), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Hilden (H) 48.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SW Essen (A) 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hilden face SW Essen in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hilden a 49% chance, the draw 25% and SW Essen 27%, so Hilden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Hilden and 1.6 for SW Essen (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hilden are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.64 for SW Essen. This match finished 2-4.

Hilden vs SW Essen Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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