Today / Turkey - 1. Lig / Sivasspor vs Igdir

Sivasspor vs Igdir Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Regular Season - 37 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Sivasspor

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Igdir

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.1%0-24.3%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.6%1-112.3%1-26.5%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.2%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.4%3-14.6%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.4%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% 37.0% 2.70 +23.4%

Draw 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -3.3%

Away win 25.1% 42.6% 2.35 -41.0%

Over 2.5 50.1% 51.8% 1.93 -3.3%

Over 3.5 25.6% 29.9% 3.35 -14.2%

BTTS 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -9.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–1✓ 9.2%

#5 2–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sivasspor1.5

Igdir1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SIVASSPOR · PPG 1.56

IGDIR · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.56), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Sivasspor (H) 45.7%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +23.4%

Draw 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.3%

Igdir (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -41.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sivasspor face Igdir in Turkey - 1. Lig on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sivasspor a 46% chance, the draw 29% and Igdir 25%, so Sivasspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Sivasspor and 1.1 for Igdir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sivasspor are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.33 for Igdir. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 2-1.

Sivasspor vs Igdir Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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