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Monheim vs Homberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Monheim

PPG 0.92 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Homberg

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.9%0-26.6%0-33.7%0-4+2.3%1 1-06.5%1-110.9%1-29.1%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.5%2-17.5%2-26.3%2-33.5%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.1%3-13.5%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% — — —

Draw 28.2% — — —

Away win 37.5% — — —

Over 2.5 59.0% — — —

Over 3.5 36.6% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monheim1.4

Homberg1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONHEIM · PPG 0.92

HOMBERG · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.92), Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Monheim (H) 34.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Homberg (A) 37.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Monheim face Homberg in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monheim a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Homberg 38%, so Homberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Monheim and 1.7 for Homberg (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monheim are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.07 for Homberg. This match finished 3-2.

Monheim vs Homberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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