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Meerbusch vs Baumberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Niederrhein - 29 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Meerbusch

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Baumberg

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-13.7%0-23.6%0-32.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-03.9%1-17.5%1-27.3%1-34.7%1-4+3.5%2 2-03.9%2-17.6%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.6%3-15.1%3-24.9%3-33.2%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.1%4+-23.9%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 29.6% — — —

Away win 32.9% — — —

Over 2.5 60.8% — — —

Over 3.5 55.7% — — —

BTTS 58.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 17%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 2.0-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Meerbusch2.0

Baumberg1.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 55.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MEERBUSCH · PPG 1.86

BAUMBERG · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.86) vs P(Home)=37.6%

Win probability 1X2

Meerbusch (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Baumberg (A) 32.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Meerbusch face Baumberg in Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Meerbusch a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Baumberg 33%, so Meerbusch are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Meerbusch and 1.9 for Baumberg (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Meerbusch are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.85 for Baumberg. This match finished 0-1.

Meerbusch vs Baumberg Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Niederrhein

Match Preview & Prediction

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