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Sparta Prague B vs Opava Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 08:30

Sparta Prague B

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Opava

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-114.8%0-214.6%0-39.6%0-4+7.4%1 1-04.6%1-19.1%1-29.0%1-35.9%1-4+4.6%2 2-01.4%2-12.8%2-22.8%2-31.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 23.8% 4.20 -40.8%

Draw 26.1% 27.4% 3.65 -4.7%

Away win 59.8% 58.8% 1.70 +1.7%

Over 2.5 50.4% 56.5% 1.77 -10.8%

Over 3.5 26.2% 33.9% 2.95 -22.7%

BTTS 49.5% 58.8% 1.70 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 10.4%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob49.5%

A 60% / xG 0.6-2.0 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 14.6%

#2 0–1 14.8%

#3 1–1 9.1%

#4 0–3 9.6%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Prague B0.6

Opava2.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA PRAGUE B · PPG 0.75

OPAVA · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.75) vs Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Prague B (H) 14.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -40.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.7%

Opava (A) 59.8%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Prague B face Opava in Czech-Republic - FNL on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Prague B a 14% chance, the draw 26% and Opava 60%, so Opava are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Sparta Prague B and 2.0 for Opava (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Prague B are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.17 for Opava. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 0-0.

Sparta Prague B vs Opava Prediction— Czech-Republic - FNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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