Today / Poland - I Liga / Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Pogoń Siedlce

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

UPCOMING

Puszcza Niepołomice

PPG 0.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-19.7%0-24.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.2%1-112.9%1-25.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.5%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.2%3-13.8%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 32.3% 3.10 +45.7%

Draw 28.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.2%

Away win 24.8% 45.5% 2.20 -27.3%

Over 2.5 44.5% 48.1% 2.08 -7.4%

Over 3.5 25.5% 26.7% 3.75 -2.6%

BTTS 48.3% 55.6% 1.80 -13.1%

Home O1.5 38.6% 33.3% 3.00 +15.8%

Away O1.5 26.1% 44.4% 2.25 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 71 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.3%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 14.2%

#3 0–0 10.7%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogoń Siedlce1.3

Puszcza Niepołomice0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

POGOŃ SIEDLCE · PPG 1.47

PUSZCZA NIEPOŁOMICE · PPG 0.97

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.42, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pogoń Siedlce (H) 47.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +45.7%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -9.2%

Puszcza Niepołomice (A) 24.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogoń Siedlce face Puszcza Niepołomice in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogoń Siedlce a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Puszcza Niepołomice 25%, so Pogoń Siedlce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pogoń Siedlce and 0.9 for Puszcza Niepołomice (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogoń Siedlce are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.97 for Puszcza Niepołomice. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +30.0%.

Pogoń Siedlce vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - I Liga Predictions